The Power of Replication

In addition to the primary accumulation of replications of the same simple hypothesis tests in the formal series, we have repetitions of a number of kinds of events. When those are sufficiently similar, it is possible to make somewhat less powerful tests of the power of replication by putting examples of well-defined categories together.

For example, we have looked at several events in which Barack Obama was the central figure. Putting these together we can ask whether there might be an Obama Effect producing consistent deviations. The answer seems to be yes.

Very recently a suggestion was made by a correspondent that the Phillipine boxer Manny Pacquiao might have a detectable effect on the GCP network, based on the undeniably powerful effect he has all over the Phillipines as one of the most loved sports figures they’ve ever seen. We put a list of his fights together to see whether they show a Pacquiao Effect, and again the answer apparently is yes.

Another category of considerable interest to many people is organized meditations or mass intention experiments to try to affect the social climate in the world. These are most clearly represented in frequent peace prayers or meditations, for example the official International Peace Day that occurs on September 21 each year. If we accumulate all of these, the result is instructive. There is a great deal of variability, with almost as many negative or null results as there are positive outcomes. If we look at just the International Peace Day results, this variance is statistically significant, with a Z-score of 2.098. But the composite Z falls short of significance at 1.455, and it driven heavily by a strong outcome in 2011.

More to come — remind me, please.