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The Superbowl 2004 game was a wonderfully close match and interesting
even to people without deep commitments to one team or the other.
Ultimately won by a field goal with a few seconds left, after a game of
exciting battle for the lead. But the media blitz went to full force for
the halftime show, or rather its ending, where Janet Jackson's breast
was exposed by what Justin Timberlake called a "costume malfunction".
The titilation was probably deliberate, though it backfired in getting
lots of negative attention,
but it certatinly caused lots of focus. So, following Dean Radin's
suggestion, I did an exploratory analysis. Couldn't get the exact time
of the halftime show or the exposure incident, but it probably was about
halfway through the game, which began at 5:25 pm and ran for 4 hours and 5
minutes. The following figure shows the hour from 7 to 8 pm, and I am
guessing the incident was at about 7:25, halfway through the game.
That point is marked. It is followed by a short period of time, about
10 minutes, where the trend is very strongly negative. If it had been
predicted (rather than picked out visually) it would be highly
significant.
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