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India Train Crash

On the 2nd of August, at 01:30, in Gaisal Station, West Bengal, India, two trains collided head on. Each was carrying approximately 1000 passengers. Early reports indicated at least 300 dead, and officials feared as many as 500. The first of the figures shows an exploratory examination of the GCP results for all eggs around the world, during the four-hour period beginning at 20:00, UTC on 1 August, 1999, corresponding to 01:30 Indian local time on the 2nd of August. The second figure shows results for the eggs that are geographically closest, in India, Fiji, New Zealand, and the west coast of North America.

graph, India train crash, all data

graph, India train crash, nearby eggs

(August, 1999, RDN)

George deBeaumont did a more detailed examination of the data around the time of the crash, exploring a longer time-period in smaller blocks of time.

The first looks at one hour beginning at the time of the crash.

graph, India train crash, all data

The second looks at one hour beginning an hour after the crash.

graph, India train crash, all data

The third looks at one hour beginning two hours after the crash.

graph, India train crash, all data

The fourth looks at one hour beginning three hours after the crash (the last hour of the four hour period specified in the prediction).

graph, India train crash, all data

The fifth looks at one hour beginning four hours after the crash, extending the original predicted time by an hour.

graph, India train crash, all data

The sixth looks at one hour beginning five hours after the crash, extending the original predicted time to a sixth hour.

graph, India train crash, all data


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