Adrian Patrut provided detailed timing of the funeral for Prince Rainier,
pursuant to testing his hypothesis concerning the "mimosa syndrome".
While the S/N ratio is too small to confirm or invalidate this
hypothesis, it is an interesting exploration. The following is the
description Adrian provided, and the results of the exploratory
analysis.
Prince Rainier III died on April 6, 2005, at the age of 81, from heart,
lung and kidney failure after protracted respiratory illness.
Prince Rainier III ruled the Principality of Monaco for over 55 years.
He ascended to throne in May 1949.
Prince Rainier married American actress Grace Kelly in April 1956. She
died in September 1982, in a car accident.
Prince Rainier and Princess Grace (Gracia) had three children:
Princesses Caroline and Stephanie and Prince Albert.
Known as the Builder Prince, Rainier changed Monaco from a quiet resort
to a thriving center of finance and tourism.
The funeral of Prince Rainier took place on April 15, 2004, in the St.
John Baptiste Cathedral were he also wed, in the presence of 150 royals,
dignitaries and world leaders. The event was broadcasted worldwide.
The main moments of the funeral are the following (the time data were
taken from the recorded videotape and are rounded to the nearest
minute):
09:00 09:30 UTC (11:00 11:30 local time): Important international
personalities pay last respect in front of the coffin with Prince
Rainiers corpse laying in state at the Palatine Chapel of the Palace.
09:35: The 170 Palace staff pays final homage.
10:04: The Funeral Procession starts from Palace to Cathedral. The
coffin is carried by 10 soldiers.
10:14: Last homage in front of the Cathedral.
10:25: The Funeral Mass begins.
11:55: End of the Funeral Mass.
I think that one should analyze the results in the time frame 9:30
12:00 UTC.
In connection with two very different events, that succeeded very close
in time, i. e. the Pope John Paul II funeral (08.04.2005) and the
marriage of Prince Charles (09.04.2004), I proposed to take in
discussion the hypothesis of the existence of a testable so-called
mimosa-type syndrome, formulated as follows:
"The 'mimosa-type' syndrome stipulates that if an event generates a
significant effect on the GCP network, a (similar or different) event
that occurs shortly after the previous event (probably a few days later)
will generate a smaller effect or even no effect.
In a more accurate form, the definition of the hypothetical mimosa-type
syndrome has two parts:
1. If an event generates a significant effect on the GCP network, a
similar event, which occurs shortly after the previous event (probably a
few days later) will generate a smaller effect or will have no effect;
2. If an event generates a significant effect on the GCP network, an
event of a completely different nature, which occurs shortly after the
previous event (probably a few days later), will generate a smaller
effect or will have no effect.
The very significant effects generated by the Popes funeral and also by
Prince Charles marriage on the GCP network suggest that the second part
of the hypothetical mimosa-type syndrome was not obeyed and that it can
be ruled out as non-valid.
The funeral of Prince Rainier III (15.04.2005), an event that is also
close in time to the previous very similar event, i. e. the Popes
funeral (08.04.2005), is a very good occasion to test the validity of
the first part of the hypothetical mimosa-type syndrome.
Let's wait once again what the results will show!
The figure shows that indeed the result for the Rainier funeral
is smaller, with Z=0.434 and p=0.332.
Of course there are confounding factors, in particular that the Rainier
funeral was clearly not a "global" event in the sense of the Pope's
funeral. With that caveat, we can say that the result is consistent
with the mimosa hypothesis, albeit by no means conclusive.
