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From a letter to the New York Times:
Regarding the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to President
Obama on Friday (The New York Times on the Web, Oct. 9):
I applaud this stunning decision as a much-needed boost to
the image of the United States on the world stage and as a
vote of confidence in President Obama's diplomatic
efforts.
But conservatives in this country are going to see it as an
effort by the Nobel Committee to unduly influence President
Obama's policy review on Afghanistan. Meanwhile,
progressives will find succor in what Rahm Emanuel jokingly
referred to as an "Oslo beats Copenhagen" moment.
Nonetheless, congratulations, Mr. President! This award
could not have come at a better time for you and America.
The GCP event was set for an 8 hour period beginning about
an hour before the announcement, which was around 5 am ET (09:00
GMT), to cover a little anticipation and a substantial time
for the news to spread especially in the US. The result
shows Chisquare 28983.463 on 28000 for a probability of
0.222, and Z = 0.766, a modest positive deviation.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical
effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from
noise. This means that every "success" might be largely
driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect
can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.
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