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On April 13 2011, President Obama's speech on the new budget
proposal presented a strong contrast to that by the
republican dominated congress, presented by Paul ??.
While this is hardly a "global" event, it is an important
determiner of the future of this country, and hence of the
influence of the US in the world. I was curious to see
how it would fit into the ongoing series of Obama dominated
events, so did an exploratory look. While the outcome isn't
strong, it is consistent with the series -- a positive
deviation, with Z about 0.5, larger than the average.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical
effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from
noise. This means that every "success" might be largely
driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect
can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.
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