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On August 31, 2010 President Obama marked the end of
Operation Iraqi Freedom. Mitch Stewart, Director of Organizing for
America, provided a link to a video of
the President's address, with a brief introduction:
As the President said, the struggle for peace is not over, but the
progress we've made is undeniable.
This moment also represents a promise kept. As a candidate, President
Obama laid out a vision for this country -- and bringing our troops
home from Iraq was a defining part of that vision. It was one of the
reasons that all of us knocked on doors, made phone calls, and voted.
Keeping that promise is important, not only for our brave women and
men in uniform, but also for their loved ones, and for all Americans
who have hoped and prayed for a resolution to this war.
For a number of reasons, this is an important, symbolic moment. The GCP
watched the buildup, the protests, and beginning of this war long years
ago. And we have watched the network response during prominent moments
in Barack Obama's campaign and his Presidency. This speech represents
both the long desired end of the war and another instance of Obama in
the public eye. The GCP event was set for 2 hours beginning
approximately 30 minutes before the speech (scheduled for 8pm, but I
don't have the exact time) and continuing an hour or more after the
speech. The result is Chisquare 7313.687 on 7200 df, for p = 0.172 and
Z = 0.948. The graph shows the approximate time of the speech.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical
effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from
noise. This means that every "success" might be largely
driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect
can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.
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