|
We have been waiting for the resolution demanded by the
protesting crowds in Cairo and Alexandria, that President
Mubarak should resign. It has been difficult to avoid worry
that the tense situation might turn bloody, but it appears
that is not going to happen beyond the lives lost up to this
point. Mubarak resigned on Feb 11.
My colleague, Peter Bancel, living in France, has better
news access than we in the US. Early on the 11th, he sent this description of
the situation, leading him to suggest the day, beginning at
noon in Egypt and for the next 12 hours,
would be a well-characterized GCP event.
Briefly, yesterday, being Thursday, the day before Friday
midday prayers, saw an increase of anticipation among the
protesters.
Adding to that were rumors that Mubarak would resign in a
televised address to the nation. The expectations were
raised when the army announced that protesters demands
"would be met", followed by another announcement shortly
afterward confirming that Mubarak would indeed make a speech
at 8pm local time. In Washington, CIA director Leon Panetta,
in testimony before a Congressional committee stated that
Mubarak's exit was "likely" and Obama, on the road, voiced
optimism about the situation. ElBaradei tweeted "We're
almost there" at about the same time.
By the time the Mubarak came on TV Thursday evening the
crowds were jubilant. Mubarak extinguished the celebration
in a few minutes. He announced he would not be stepping down
in an aloof and patronizing 15 minute speech. Within minutes
the furious crowd reacted with anger and dismay. Thousands
held up shoes in unison, a sign of insult and disrespect in
Arab culture (recall that once an Iraqi reporter threw his
shoe at President Bush during a press conference in Baghdad.
Same thing.). Immediately, preparations and organizing for
Friday protests began.
The crowds that turned out in Tahrir Square and elsewhere in
the country on Friday were huge and determined, tense yet
disciplined. Late in the afternoon rumors again circulated
that Mubarak would leave office. At 5pm local time, in a
20-second announcement on state television, the
Vice-President Omar Suleiman announced Mubarak had resigned.
The crowds erupted in celebration.
The GCP event was set for noon to midnight on the 11th,
which includes the noon prayer period and, as it turns out,
also the actual announcement of the resignation.
The result is 43003.816 on 43200 df, for p = 0.747 and Z =
-0.666. The time of the announcement, 5 pm local time,
is marked on the figure.
Although our formal analysis is made using the full network
of 65-70 eggs, it is interesting to look at the data from
relatively local eggs. In this case, we have an egg in
Cairo, ID# 2248 hosted by Dr. Fahmy. Examining the data from
this single device, we see a striking deviation beginning around the time
of the announcement, and persisting to the end of the
formally specified event. As noted, this is not a formal
analysis, but the departure amounts to 2.3 sigma, and would
happen about once in 100 random selections of a data
sequence of this length.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical
effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from
noise. This means that every "success" might be largely
driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect
can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.
|